Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turks and Caicos win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Sint Maarten had a probability of 35.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turks and Caicos win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.27%). The likeliest Sint Maarten win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turks and Caicos would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
