Arandina's progression to this stage of the competition must be celebrated, but we are finding it very, very difficult to back them to go any further. Ancelotti will make changes to his strongest available Real Madrid side, but the visitors should still have far too much for their opponents in this contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 77.26%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Arandina had a probability of 7.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.91%) and 0-3 (11.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.2%), while for an Arandina win it was 1-0 (3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
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