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Champions League | Group Stage
Dec 12, 2023 at 8pm UK
Helsingin olympiastadion
RM

Union Berlin
2 - 3
Real Madrid

Volland (45+1'), Kral (85')
Khedira (35'), Laidouni (76')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Joselu (61', 72'), Ceballos (89')
Bellingham (35'), Alaba (55')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 63.61%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 16.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawReal Madrid
16.34% (0.0030000000000001 0) 20.05%63.61% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Both teams to score 54.5% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.42% (0.00099999999999767 0)40.58% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.04% (0.0020000000000024 0)62.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.02% (0.0049999999999955 0)37.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.25% (0.0040000000000013 0)74.75% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)12.12% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.31% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)37.69% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 16.34%
    Real Madrid 63.61%
    Draw 20.05%
Union BerlinDrawReal Madrid
2-1 @ 4.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 4.46%
2-0 @ 2.16%
3-2 @ 1.55% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 1.47% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 16.34%
1-1 @ 9.4%
2-2 @ 4.8% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.6% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 20.05%
0-2 @ 10.25%
1-2 @ 9.92%
0-1 @ 9.71% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-3 @ 7.21% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 6.98%
0-4 @ 3.81% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 3.68%
2-3 @ 3.38% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.78%
0-5 @ 1.61% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-5 @ 1.56%
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 63.61%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Union Berlin 3-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, December 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Braga 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, November 29 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Union Berlin 1-1 Augsburg
Saturday, November 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin
Sunday, November 12 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, November 8 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: Union Berlin 0-3 Frankfurt
Saturday, November 4 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Betis 1-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, December 9 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-0 Granada
Saturday, December 2 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 4-2 Napoli
Wednesday, November 29 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Cadiz 0-3 Real Madrid
Sunday, November 26 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 5-1 Valencia
Saturday, November 11 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-0 Braga
Wednesday, November 8 at 8pm in Champions League


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