SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 3-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.99%), while for a Villarreal win it was 1-2 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
66.19% ( 0.11) | 18.08% ( -0.25) | 15.73% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 60.46% ( 1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.75% ( 1.56) | 32.24% ( -1.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.15% ( 1.79) | 53.85% ( -1.79) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.9% ( 0.45) | 9.1% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.1% ( 1.06) | 30.9% ( -1.07) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.51% ( 1.17) | 33.49% ( -1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.87% ( 1.26) | 70.13% ( -1.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.38)3-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 7.3% ( -0.47)3-0 @ 7% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.15)5-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.11)5-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.1)4-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.08)Other @ 4.11% Total : 66.19% | 1-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.11)0-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.26)3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.28% Total : 18.08% | 1-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.33% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.71% Total : 15.73% |
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