Granada have experienced a poor start to the campaign, and we think that their leaky defence could ship a goal on Thursday, but we still expect the top-flight visitors to show enough quality to ease through to the second round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 66.68%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Arosa had a probability of 13.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.72%) and 1-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for an Arosa win it was 1-0 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Granada would win this match.
-0.22) 
0.38) 
