Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Talavera de la Reina win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Talavera de la Reina win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.31%) and 2-0 (5.39%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-2 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.03) 
