After losing their opening two games, Gremio have found some form, winning three on the trot. They should be too strong for the weakest team in the group, so we expect a victory for the home side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 49.35%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 24.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.45%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
-0.14) 
0.09) 
