Estudiantes were among the strongest backlines in the opening phase of this competition, while Deportivo have struggled against counteracting sides, and we expect the home team to expose that weakness in this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 68.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 10.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.95%) and 3-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.03%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
-0.34) 
0.19) 
