Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Emelec had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Emelec win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.