Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Emelec had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Emelec win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
