Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 40.36%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.