SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 51.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lanus | Draw | LDU Quito |
51.62% ( 0.09) | 25.5% ( 0.08) | 22.88% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 48.13% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.53% ( -0.43) | 54.47% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.17% ( -0.36) | 75.83% ( 0.36) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.87% ( -0.14) | 21.13% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.03% ( -0.21) | 53.97% ( 0.21) |
| LDU Quito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.02% ( -0.4) | 38.98% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.29% ( -0.38) | 75.7% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lanus | Draw | LDU Quito |
| 1-0 @ 12.8% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2% 4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.29% Total : 51.61% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.47% Total : 22.88% |
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