Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 52.74%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 22.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
-0.11) 
0.06) 
