Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 48.48%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 23.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.