Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 46.99%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 24.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.