Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.