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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Oct 21, 2020 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo
AP

Penarol
3 - 2
Athletico PR

Formiliano (2'), Kagelmacher (63'), Britos (81')
A (31')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gonzalez (36'), Richard (45')
Ravanelli (78')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Penarol and Athletico Paranaense.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
PenarolDrawAthletico Paranaense
41.93%28.01%30.06%
Both teams to score 46.54%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.76%59.24%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.35%79.65%
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.13%27.87%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.52%63.48%
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.52%35.48%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.75%72.25%
Score Analysis
    Penarol 41.93%
    Athletico Paranaense 30.06%
    Draw 28%
PenarolDrawAthletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 12.63%
2-1 @ 8.36%
2-0 @ 8.07%
3-1 @ 3.56%
3-0 @ 3.44%
3-2 @ 1.85%
4-1 @ 1.14%
4-0 @ 1.1%
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 41.93%
1-1 @ 13.09%
0-0 @ 9.89%
2-2 @ 4.33%
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 28%
0-1 @ 10.24%
1-2 @ 6.78%
0-2 @ 5.31%
1-3 @ 2.34%
0-3 @ 1.83%
2-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 30.06%


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