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COSAFA Cup | Group Stage
Jul 11, 2021 at 4pm UK
Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium
MN

Mozambique
2 - 0
Malawi

J. Tesoura Junior (55' pen.), Nelson Simbine (68')
Muze (53'), J. Tesoura Junior (60'), M. Nangy (65'), A. Siluane (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Chirwa (14'), Kuwali (22')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.

Result
MozambiqueDrawMalawi
45.21%26.76%28.03%
Both teams to score 49.01%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.44%55.56%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.27%76.73%
Mozambique Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.51%24.49%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.05%58.95%
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.91%35.09%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.16%71.84%
Score Analysis
    Mozambique 45.2%
    Malawi 28.03%
    Draw 26.76%
MozambiqueDrawMalawi
1-0 @ 12.08%
2-1 @ 8.91%
2-0 @ 8.5%
3-1 @ 4.18%
3-0 @ 3.99%
3-2 @ 2.19%
4-1 @ 1.47%
4-0 @ 1.4%
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 45.2%
1-1 @ 12.66%
0-0 @ 8.59%
2-2 @ 4.66%
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 26.76%
0-1 @ 9%
1-2 @ 6.63%
0-2 @ 4.71%
1-3 @ 2.32%
0-3 @ 1.65%
2-3 @ 1.63%
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 28.03%

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