Lyon ought to chalk up their loss to Le Havre to their loss of discipline, and Sage's side have otherwise been impenetrable over the Christmas and New Year period - a resilient streak which should recommence on Friday.
The five-time winners will be squaring up to fearless opponents who know what it takes to spring a surprise in the Coupe de France, but we cannot envisage such a giant killing this week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 70.51%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Bergerac Perigord had a probability of 11.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.31%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Bergerac Perigord win it was 1-0 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
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