Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Pau had a probability of 35.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.
