St Pauli will be full of confidence after beating Dortmund in the last round of the competition, but we are finding it difficult to back the visitors here. It would certainly not be a shock to see St Pauli triumph, but we believe that the home side's extra quality will allow them to win this game to progress to the semi-finals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 37.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.
