We said: Union Berlin 2-2 Borussia Dortmund
With Union's incredible home record being coupled with Dortmund's dampened spirits following last weekend's heavy defeat, we believe the hosts will come out with at least a point from this game.
They too will be hurt following a setback, so we are predicting a share of the points in a high-scoring encounter thanks to the return of Haaland and the visitors' defensive woes.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.17%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
