With Union's incredible home record being coupled with Dortmund's dampened spirits following last weekend's heavy defeat, we believe the hosts will come out with at least a point from this game.
They too will be hurt following a setback, so we are predicting a share of the points in a high-scoring encounter thanks to the return of Haaland and the visitors' defensive woes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.17%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
