Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 59.48%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 1-0 (7.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
