SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 45.55%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swansea City | Draw | Northampton Town |
45.55% ( -0.67) | 24.69% ( 0.11) | 29.76% ( 0.55) |
| Both teams to score 56.56% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.77% ( -0.21) | 46.23% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.47% ( -0.2) | 68.52% ( 0.19) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.62% ( -0.37) | 20.38% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.21% ( -0.59) | 52.79% ( 0.59) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.04% ( 0.28) | 28.96% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.15% ( 0.34) | 64.85% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swansea City | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.39% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.47% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.95% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.8% Total : 45.55% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.69% | 0-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 7.21% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.57% Total : 29.76% |
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