While Exeter impressed against Forest Green in midweek, you have to anticipate that several alterations will be made. With that in mind, we are backing Pompey to edge this contest by the odd goal in three, potentially during the latter stages.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 35.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.
