With Hartlepool being on a good run of form heading into this one, as well as Bolton's struggles with form and COVID-19 issues, we can see the hosts pulling off an upset on Tuesday.
Despite there being a division between these two sides, Hartlepool have displayed enough to show they can cause another shock here after thumping League One outfit Sheffield Wednesday in the previous round too.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.
