Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 88.46%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 3.74%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.5%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (1.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
