Dortmund
1 - 3
Ajax

Reus (37' pen.)
Knauff (79')
Hummels (29')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Tadic (72'), Haller (83'), Klaassen (90+3')
Alvarez (39')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.81%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.44%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-0 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Ajax
27.68%	24.51%	47.81%

Both teams to score 55.76%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.35%

46.64%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.09%

68.91%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.34%

30.66%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.09%

66.91%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.41%

19.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.48%

51.52%

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 27.68%

Ajax 47.81%

Draw 24.5%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Ajax
1-0 @ 7.1% 2-1 @ 6.84% 2-0 @ 4.2% 3-1 @ 2.7% 3-2 @ 2.2% 3-0 @ 1.65% Other @ 3% Total : 27.68%	1-1 @ 11.57% 0-0 @ 6.01% 2-2 @ 5.58% 3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.5%	0-1 @ 9.79% 1-2 @ 9.44% 0-2 @ 7.98% 1-3 @ 5.13% 0-3 @ 4.34% 2-3 @ 3.03% 1-4 @ 2.09% 0-4 @ 1.77% 2-4 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.01% Total : 47.81%