Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-0 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.