Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 50.52%. A win for Puskas Academy had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Puskas Academy win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.