SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 | Belenenses | 34 | -32 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 33 | 4 | 45 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | -16 | 40 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 26.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.49%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 26.31% | 24.7% | 48.99% |
| Both teams to score 53.97% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.54% | 48.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.41% | 70.6% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.32% | 32.69% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.77% | 69.23% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.18% | 19.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.11% | 51.9% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 7.24% 2-1 @ 6.56% 2-0 @ 4.05% 3-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 1.98% 3-0 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.53% Total : 26.31% | 1-1 @ 11.72% 0-0 @ 6.48% 2-2 @ 5.31% 3-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.7% | 0-1 @ 10.48% 1-2 @ 9.49% 0-2 @ 8.49% 1-3 @ 5.12% 0-3 @ 4.58% 2-3 @ 2.86% 1-4 @ 2.07% 0-4 @ 1.85% 2-4 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.89% Total : 48.99% |
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