Vitoria de Guimaraes are making a late charge for a place in Europe next season and will fancy their chances against a Tondela side who have struggled for form at home this season. Os Vimaranenses have won each of their last two away games and we predict they will keep this run going and come away with all three points on Sunday, albeit by the odd goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 26.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.49%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.

Result
Tondela	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
26.31%	24.7%	48.99%

Both teams to score 53.97%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.54%

48.47%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.41%

70.6%

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.32%

32.69%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.77%

69.23%

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.18%

19.82%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.11%

51.9%

Score Analysis

Tondela 26.31%

Vitoria de Guimaraes 48.99%

Draw 24.7%

Tondela	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 7.24% 2-1 @ 6.56% 2-0 @ 4.05% 3-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 1.98% 3-0 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.53% Total : 26.31%	1-1 @ 11.72% 0-0 @ 6.48% 2-2 @ 5.31% 3-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.7%	0-1 @ 10.48% 1-2 @ 9.49% 0-2 @ 8.49% 1-3 @ 5.12% 0-3 @ 4.58% 2-3 @ 2.86% 1-4 @ 2.07% 0-4 @ 1.85% 2-4 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.89% Total : 48.99%