Lugano will travel to Belgium with confidence following their recent results, but Union SG do still boast plenty of quality even after some key departures, and we fancy Blessin's men to gain an advantage in their home leg, leaving everything still to play for next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.

Result
Union SG	Draw	Lugano
50.23% ( 0)	23.3% ( 0)	26.46% ( -0)

Both teams to score 58.79% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.83% (

-0.02)

42.17% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.42% (

-0.02)

64.58% (

0.02)

Union SG Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.08% (

-0.01)

16.92% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.03% (

-0.01)

46.97% (

0.01)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.76% (

-0.01)

29.24% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.8% (

-0.02)

65.2% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Union SG 50.23%

Lugano 26.46%

Draw 23.3%

Union SG	Draw	Lugano
2-1 @ 9.6% 1-0 @ 8.79% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.81% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.63% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.53% 4-0 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) Other @ 4.09% Total : 50.23%	1-1 @ 10.8% 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.3%	1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.74% 1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 3.32% Total : 26.46%