Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 49.89%. A win for North Macedonia had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest North Macedonia win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.