European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 13, 2021 at 2pm UK

Wembley Stadium

England
1 - 0
Croatia

Sterling (57')
Foden (64')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Caleta-Car (42'), Kovacic (48'), Brozovic (66')

Gareth Southgate hails "positive step" as England beat Croatia

Raheem Sterling pleased to block out 'outside noise'

Gareth Southgate: 'Brilliant to give England fans joy'

Gareth Southgate lavishes praise on Raheem Sterling after Wembley goal

Five talking points from England's victory over Croatia

Gareth Southgate selects Kieran Trippier at left-back for Croatia clash

Some England supporters defy pleas not to boo players taking the knee

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 16.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for England in this match.

Result
England	Draw	Croatia
61.38%	21.98%	16.64%

Both teams to score 48.79%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.5%

48.5%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.37%

70.63%

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.7%

15.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.97%

44.03%

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.61%

42.39%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.23%

78.77%

Score Analysis

England 61.37%

Croatia 16.64%

Draw 21.98%

England	Draw	Croatia
1-0 @ 12.17% 2-0 @ 11.42% 2-1 @ 9.81% 3-0 @ 7.15% 3-1 @ 6.14% 4-0 @ 3.36% 4-1 @ 2.88% 3-2 @ 2.63% 5-0 @ 1.26% 4-2 @ 1.24% 5-1 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.23% Total : 61.37%	1-1 @ 10.45% 0-0 @ 6.49% 2-2 @ 4.21% Other @ 0.84% Total : 21.98%	0-1 @ 5.57% 1-2 @ 4.49% 0-2 @ 2.39% 1-3 @ 1.28% 2-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.71% Total : 16.64%