Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 16.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for England in this match.
