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European Championship | Semi-Finals
Jul 6, 2021 at 8pm UK
Wembley Stadium
SN

Italy
1 - 1
Spain

Italy win 4-2 on penalties
Chiesa (60')
Toloi (97'), Bonucci (118')
FT
(aet)
Morata (80')
Busquets (51')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Spain had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Spain win was 0-1 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%).

Result
ItalyDrawSpain
42.31%28.24%29.45%
Both teams to score 45.63%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.75%60.25%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.57%80.43%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.85%28.15%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.17%63.83%
Spain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.5%36.5%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.71%73.29%
Score Analysis
    Italy 42.31%
    Spain 29.45%
    Draw 28.23%
ItalyDrawSpain
1-0 @ 13.02%
2-1 @ 8.32%
2-0 @ 8.26%
3-1 @ 3.52%
3-0 @ 3.49%
3-2 @ 1.77%
4-1 @ 1.11%
4-0 @ 1.11%
Other @ 1.71%
Total : 42.31%
1-1 @ 13.12%
0-0 @ 10.27%
2-2 @ 4.19%
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 28.23%
0-1 @ 10.35%
1-2 @ 6.61%
0-2 @ 5.22%
1-3 @ 2.22%
0-3 @ 1.75%
2-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 29.45%

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