European Championship | Quarter-Finals

Jul 2, 2021 at 8pm UK

Allianz Arena

Belgium
1 - 2
Italy

Lukaku (45+2' pen.)
Tielemans (21')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Barella (31'), Insigne (44')
Verratti (20'), Berardi (90')

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The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Belgium had a probability of 37.38% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.57%). The likeliest Belgium win was 2-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Italy in this match.

Result
Belgium	Draw	Italy
37.38%	23.97%	38.65%

Both teams to score 61.6%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.3%

40.7%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.91%

63.09%

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.17%

21.83%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.95%

55.05%

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.8%

21.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.91%

54.09%

Score Analysis

Belgium 37.38%

Italy 38.65%

Draw 23.96%

Belgium	Draw	Italy
2-1 @ 8.31% 1-0 @ 7.04% 2-0 @ 5.36% 3-1 @ 4.22% 3-2 @ 3.27% 3-0 @ 2.72% 4-1 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.57% Total : 37.38%	1-1 @ 10.92% 2-2 @ 6.45% 0-0 @ 4.63% 3-3 @ 1.69% Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.96%	1-2 @ 8.47% 0-1 @ 7.18% 0-2 @ 5.57% 1-3 @ 4.38% 2-3 @ 3.33% 0-3 @ 2.88% 1-4 @ 1.7% 2-4 @ 1.29% 0-4 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.73% Total : 38.65%