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FA Cup | Second Round
Nov 26, 2022 at 3pm UK
The New Lawn

Forest Green
2 - 1
Alvechurch

Wickham (24' pen.), March (51')
Bernard (21'), Hendry (45')
Bernard (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Abbey (49')
Abbey (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cheltenham 1-2 Alvechurch
Saturday, November 5 at 3pm in FA Cup

We said: Forest Green Rovers 3-1 Alvechurch

When up against it, Alvechurch are a side that has proven in both the FA Cup and the FA Trophy that they can score goals against almost any team. They will undoubtedly give a depleted Forest Green team a challenge at the New Lane this weekend. However, the vast disparity between these two teams - including the star quality of Green's Wickham, Myles Peart-Harris and McGeouch - should see the home side win comfortably enough. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Alvechurch had a probability of 12.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for an Alvechurch win it was 1-2 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Forest Green Rovers would win this match.

Result
Forest Green RoversDrawAlvechurch
69.53% (-0.02000000000001 -0.02) 17.48% (0.004999999999999 0) 12.99% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 54.93% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.23% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)35.76% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.16% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)57.83% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Forest Green Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.73% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)9.26% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.7% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)31.3% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Alvechurch Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.54% (0.027000000000001 0.03)39.46% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.84% (0.024000000000001 0.02)76.15% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Forest Green Rovers 69.52%
    Alvechurch 12.99%
    Draw 17.48%
Forest Green RoversDrawAlvechurch
2-0 @ 10.34% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.62% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-0 @ 8.7% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 8.2% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.63% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 4.88% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.54% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 2.32% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
5-1 @ 2.16% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-2 @ 2.11% (0.0019999999999998 0)
5-2 @ 1% (0.0010000000000001 0)
6-0 @ 0.92% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 69.52%
1-1 @ 8.09% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-2 @ 4.47% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-0 @ 3.66% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-3 @ 1.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 17.48%
1-2 @ 3.76% (0.004 0)
0-1 @ 3.4% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-2 @ 1.58% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (0.002 0)
1-3 @ 1.17% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 12.99%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Forest Green 1-1 Cheltenham (3-4 pen.)
Tuesday, November 22 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Oxford Utd 1-1 Forest Green
Saturday, November 19 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Forest Green 0-2 Wycombe
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: South Shields 0-2 Forest Green
Saturday, November 5 at 12pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Barnsley 2-0 Forest Green
Saturday, October 29 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Fleetwood 1-1 Forest Green
Tuesday, October 25 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 1-2 Alvechurch
Saturday, November 5 at 3pm in FA Cup


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