When up against it, Alvechurch are a side that has proven in both the FA Cup and the FA Trophy that they can score goals against almost any team. They will undoubtedly give a depleted Forest Green team a challenge at the New Lane this weekend.
However, the vast disparity between these two teams - including the star quality of Green's Wickham, Myles Peart-Harris and McGeouch - should see the home side win comfortably enough.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Alvechurch had a probability of 12.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for an Alvechurch win it was 1-2 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Forest Green Rovers would win this match.
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