SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 68.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 13.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-2 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leicester City | Draw | Birmingham City |
68.3% ( -0.69) | 18.25% ( 0.33) | 13.45% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.67% ( -0.72) | 38.33% ( 0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.39% ( -0.77) | 60.61% ( 0.77) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.76% ( -0.36) | 10.24% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.42% ( -0.83) | 33.58% ( 0.84) |
| Birmingham City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.55% ( 0.07) | 40.45% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.94% ( 0.06) | 77.06% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leicester City | Draw | Birmingham City |
| 2-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.65% Total : 68.29% | 1-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.25% | 1-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.64% Total : 13.45% |
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