Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 56.17%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Martigues had a probability of 18.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Martigues win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ajaccio in this match.
-0.04) 
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