Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 40.4%. A win for Valenciennes had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest Valenciennes win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.01) 
