Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 74.59%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Caldiero Terme had a probability of 8.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.85%) and 3-0 (10.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.9%), while for a Caldiero Terme win it was 0-1 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
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