Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 52.04%. A win for Lancaster City had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest Lancaster City win was 2-1 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
-0.51) 
0.04) 
