Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 50.54%. A win for Calcio Padova had a probability of 25.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Calcio Padova win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sassuolo in this match.
0.1) 
-0.01) 
