Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 75.2%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Fezzanese had a probability of 8.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.45%) and 3-0 (10.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Fezzanese win it was 0-1 (3.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.06) 
