Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cosenza Calcio win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cosenza Calcio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
-0.86) 
0.61) 
