Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 36.25%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 35.82% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.79%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Empoli win was 1-0 (11.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
0.01) 
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