Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 28.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
-1.27) 
1.6) 
