SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Poland | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Moldova | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 7 | -11 | 1 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 5 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Serbia | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 6 | -7 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albania win with a probability of 49.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 23.55%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albania win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Albania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Albania | Draw | Bulgaria |
49.09% ( -0.26) | 27.36% ( -0.09) | 23.55% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 43.83% ( 0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.57% ( 0.55) | 60.43% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.44% ( 0.41) | 80.56% ( -0.41) |
| Albania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.21% ( 0.13) | 24.79% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.64% ( 0.17) | 59.36% ( -0.17) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.28% ( 0.66) | 41.72% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.81% ( 0.57) | 78.19% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Albania | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 14.42% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.14)2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.21% Total : 49.08% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.56% Total : 27.36% | 0-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.17% Total : 23.55% |
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