SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 57.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.3%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Lithuania | Draw | Bulgaria |
18.78% ( -0.58) | 24.19% ( -0.57) | 57.03% ( 1.14) |
| Both teams to score 46.25% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.99% ( 1.36) | 54% ( -1.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.55% ( 1.13) | 75.44% ( -1.13) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.95% ( 0.13) | 43.04% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.67% ( 0.11) | 79.33% ( -0.12) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.2% ( 0.96) | 18.79% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.79% ( 1.58) | 50.21% ( -1.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lithuania | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.35) 2-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.8% Total : 18.78% | 1-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( -0.44)2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.69% Total : 24.18% | 0-1 @ 13.52% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 11.3% ( 0.09)1-2 @ 9.53% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 6.3% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 5.31% ( 0.22)0-4 @ 2.63% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.15)2-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.04% Total : 57.02% |
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