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Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 14, 2023 at 5pm UK
Ludogorets Arena
LN

Bulgaria
0 - 2
Lithuania


Antov (8'), Kraev (21'), Petkov (60'), Gruev (68'), Despodov (71')
Kraev (42')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sirvys (45', 55')
Gineitis (19')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Montenegro 2-1 Bulgaria
Sunday, September 10 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
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Last Game: Lithuania 1-3 Serbia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
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We said: Bulgaria 2-1 Lithuania

Two teams that struggle to penetrate their opponents in the final third will have a chance to play each other for a long-awaited victory. Lithuania have failed to score in any of their away games in qualifying for Euro 2024, so a win against an equally struggling Bulgarian side could still be too much to ask. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 19.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result
BulgariaDrawLithuania
56.35% (-2.14 -2.14) 24.14% (0.502 0.5) 19.51% (1.641 1.64)
Both teams to score 47.55% (1.27 1.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.1% (0.247 0.25)52.9% (-0.244 -0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.49% (0.211 0.21)74.51% (-0.208 -0.21)
Bulgaria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.37% (-0.7 -0.7)18.63% (0.703 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.06% (-1.191 -1.19)49.94% (1.193 1.19)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.43% (2.048 2.05)41.57% (-2.044 -2.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.94% (1.747 1.75)78.06% (-1.745 -1.75)
Score Analysis
    Bulgaria 56.34%
    Lithuania 19.51%
    Draw 24.14%
BulgariaDrawLithuania
1-0 @ 13.01% (-0.42 -0.42)
2-0 @ 10.93% (-0.62 -0.62)
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.12% (-0.493 -0.49)
3-1 @ 5.38% (-0.115 -0.11)
4-0 @ 2.57% (-0.27 -0.27)
3-2 @ 2.36% (0.082 0.08)
4-1 @ 2.26% (-0.101 -0.1)
4-2 @ 0.99% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 56.34%
1-1 @ 11.42% (0.27 0.27)
0-0 @ 7.74% (-0.075 -0.08)
2-2 @ 4.21% (0.236 0.24)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 24.14%
0-1 @ 6.8% (0.31 0.31)
1-2 @ 5.01% (0.387 0.39)
0-2 @ 2.98% (0.292 0.29)
1-3 @ 1.47% (0.187 0.19)
2-3 @ 1.23% (0.133 0.13)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 19.51%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Montenegro 2-1 Bulgaria
Sunday, September 10 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Bulgaria 0-1 Iran
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Bulgaria 1-1 Serbia
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Lithuania 1-1 Bulgaria
Saturday, June 17 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Hungary 3-0 Bulgaria
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Bulgaria 0-1 Montenegro
Friday, March 24 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Lithuania 1-3 Serbia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Lithuania 2-2 Montenegro
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Hungary 2-0 Lithuania
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Lithuania 1-1 Bulgaria
Saturday, June 17 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Greece 0-0 Lithuania
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Serbia 2-0 Lithuania
Friday, March 24 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying


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