SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 17.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.63%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.41%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (8.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Guatemala |
55.63% ( 0.19) | 27.15% ( -0.12) | 17.22% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 36.7% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.68% ( 0.25) | 65.32% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.88% ( 0.17) | 84.11% ( -0.17) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76% ( 0.19) | 24% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.75% ( 0.28) | 58.25% ( -0.28) |
| Guatemala Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.29% ( 0.05) | 51.71% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.19% ( 0.04) | 85.81% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Guatemala |
| 1-0 @ 17.71% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 12.63% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.1% Total : 55.62% | 0-0 @ 12.41% ( -0.11) 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.31% Total : 27.15% | 0-1 @ 8.19% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.85% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.49% Total : 17.22% |
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